Description

This analysis provides a forecast of FORTH prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-08-03 2.263864 2.392214 2.531156 2.694143 2.882011 3.094252 3.355944
2025-08-10 2.090111 2.242497 2.413377 2.622242 2.875220 3.178373 3.580654
2025-08-17 2.000145 2.168845 2.362801 2.607144 2.914567 3.300967 3.847445
2025-08-24 1.933277 2.112782 2.323042 2.594136 2.945661 3.405294 4.092750
2025-08-31 1.880592 2.067865 2.290492 2.582976 2.971884 3.498031 4.326040
2025-09-07 1.851509 2.048034 2.285062 2.602344 3.035182 3.642216 4.653108
2025-09-14 1.782987 1.975954 2.209763 2.524627 2.957787 3.572642 4.616885
2025-09-21 1.751375 1.947642 2.187472 2.514086 2.970562 3.633634 4.804179
2025-09-28 1.710205 1.905468 2.145188 2.473689 2.936898 3.618684 4.850002
2025-10-05 1.710840 1.915079 2.168726 2.521757 3.030881 3.806315 5.295521
2025-10-12 1.721129 1.936510 2.207441 2.591194 3.159182 4.060382 5.932521
2025-10-19 1.703028 1.920572 2.195810 2.588805 3.177557 4.130211 6.189715
2025-10-26 1.687191 1.907832 2.188883 2.593993 3.209732 4.230159 6.550914
2025-11-02 1.645294 1.860081 2.133538 2.527420 3.125437 4.114684 6.355608
2025-11-09 1.625603 1.840587 2.115335 2.513200 3.122269 4.143864 6.529602
2025-11-16 1.608022 1.823227 2.099233 2.500924 3.120654 4.173985 6.708547
2025-11-23 1.592250 1.807710 2.084960 2.490370 3.120476 4.205164 6.893544
2025-11-30 1.588091 1.807020 2.090339 2.508003 3.165547 4.323222 7.352939
2025-12-07 1.551638 1.763139 2.035899 2.436006 3.060974 4.146181 6.891893
2025-12-14 1.539007 1.750434 2.023752 2.426057 3.057876 4.165480 7.033498
2025-12-21 1.516858 1.724801 1.993438 2.388482 3.007979 4.091149 6.877998
2025-12-28 1.525267 1.739478 2.018300 2.432782 3.094094 4.286590 7.604108
2026-01-04 1.540361 1.763098 2.055733 2.496708 3.216036 4.567209 8.777338